Projected Offensive Production For The 2011 Season

With the 2011 season now 1/3 complete we have a much better sense of what this Wyoming offense is capable of the rest of the way.  After the Nebraska game the averages came down some but which will give us a more accurate average for the rest of the season.  There will certainly be some tougher opponents like Boise State and TCU where there may not be many yards gained or points scored.  But with UNLV and New Mexico the offense should be able to put up some big numbers. 

All we're doing is simply taking each player's current stats and multiplying by three.  Again the final season numbers can differ greatly based on playing time, injuries and opponent.  If these averages do hold up the result will be very impressive when compared to previous years.  If the Cowboys can maintain their 30.5 points per game average that would be more then a 10 point improvement over 2010.   The offense is currently averaging 445 yards per game which is well above the 285 from a year ago.

Let's take a took at the position players and their projected output for 2011.

PASSING

ATT COMP % TD INT YARDS
Brett Smith 429 255 59.4 21 12 2889

 

Last time Wyoming had a QB throw for more then 2000 yards in a season was back in 2007 when Karsten Sween had 2028.  Brett Smith is on pace to shatter that mark and become the first Cowboy to throw 20 or more touchdowns since Casey Bramlet did it back in 2003.  The true freshmen has certainly shown poise and composure on the field in all four games.  His success is a huge reason the Cowboys are sitting at 3-1 on the season.

RUSHING

 

ATT YARDS TD
Ghaali Muhammad 87 657 6
Brandon Miller 111 621 3
Alvester Alexander 144 576 9
Brett Smith 99 486 9

 

The three headed monster at running back has effective for Wyoming though it has tapered off some the last couple games.  If this group of four can maintain their averages they will combine for 1729 yards.  Last year the Pokes totaled just 1434 rushing yards as a team.  Muhammad currently leads the team in rushing but has the fewest attempts since he also returns kicks and plays on special teams.  Alvester Alexander has gotten stronger over the last two games and may have a much stronger second half  which also happened in 2010.  He is getting the most carries on the team but hasn't broken out for a long run like Miller and Muhammad have.

Brandon Miller has struggled against FBS opponents which just 47 combined yards against Bowling Green and Nebraska.  Hopefully he can pick up that average for the rest of the season.

RECEIVING

Catches Yards TD
Robert Herron 63 633 9
Mazi Ogbonna 48 543 6
Chris McNeill 42 471 3
Dominic Rufran 36 459 3
Alvester Alexander 24 345 0
Brandon Miler 9 228 0
Josh Doctson 9 69 0
DeJay Lester 9 66 0

 

Last year the Cowboys only had one receiver break 450 yards and that was David Leonard with 452.  The Cowboys are on pace to have four players break that mark in 2011.

With this category I'd expect the final to stats to look fairly different then these projections for some players.  Robert  Herron, Mazi Ogbonna, Chris McNeill and Dominic Rufran are all likely to keep their averages fairly similar over the rest of the year.  With Alexander and Miller it can been hit or miss with running backs catching passes.  Alexander had 110 yards receiving in the first two games and only five since then.  So Miller and Alexander could certainly end up lower then projected here.  Josh Doctson has been targeted more often over the last two games and had a touchdown catch taken away in the Nebraska game.  As he is utilized more in the offense expect his numbers to certainly increase over the rest of the year.  

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Again this is not in any shape or form some scientific method, just simple multiplication here.  But the averages after four games are certainly more accurate then if we did this same thing after three games.  With two bye weeks it will also keep the players fresh this year.  They enjoy this weekend off then gear up for Utah State and UNLV.  Wins over both those programs are crucial to Cowboy bowl hopes this year.  Then after another bye week they can refocus for the second half of the season.

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